Don't Compare Averages

We point out that for two sets of measurements, it can happen that the average of one set is larger than the average of the other set on one scale, but becomes smaller after a non-linear monotone transformation of the individual measurements. We show that the inclusion of error bars is no safeguard against this phenomenon. We give a theorem, however, that limits the amount of “reversal” that can occur; as a byproduct we get two non-standard one-sided tail estimates for arbitrary random variables which may be of independent interest. Our findings suggest that in the not infrequent situation where more than one cost measure makes sense, there is no alternative other than to explicitly compare averages for each of them, much unlike what is common practice. The presentation at the workshop will have a guaranteed surprise effect!